A system once hailed as a sustainability success story is starting to show cracks — and the Commission is preparing its next move.
For over a decade, Europe’s fisheries policy has been praised — if sometimes cautiously — as a rare environmental turnaround. Since the 2013 reform of the Common Fisheries Policy (CFP), overfishing in the North-East Atlantic has declined, more stocks are fished within sustainable limits, and transparency has improved.
But behind the headline progress, a more complicated picture is now coming into focus.
According to a new Commission staff report quietly released this spring, Europe’s fisheries face a convergence of challenges: stalled recovery in critical sea basins, signs of structural overcapacity in several member states, growing economic fragility among coastal fleets, and patchy compliance with key rules like the landing obligation.
Now, as the EU begins its formal review of the CFP, officials are weighing how to bring the bloc’s fisheries governance into a new era — one that better reflects economic risk, ecological complexity, and a changing climate.
A recovery that’s flattening out
Look closely at the numbers, and progress is real — but incomplete. In the North-East Atlantic, the share of assessed stocks fished at sustainable levels has climbed to 80%, a sharp improvement from just 30% in the mid-2000s. Biomass across major commercial species has also increased, according to the latest scientific assessments.
But that recovery is far from universal. In the Baltic Sea, key stocks like Western cod and central Baltic herring are in freefall. In the Mediterranean and Black Seas, some reductions in fishing pressure have been achieved, but biomass growth remains sluggish.
And across the board, climate-related shifts — warmer waters, ecosystem disruptions, and altered spawning patterns — are making long-term stock recovery more uncertain.
“There’s a risk that the policy architecture we’ve relied on for a decade isn’t equipped for the volatility we’re now facing,” said one senior fisheries analyst familiar with the Commission’s review.
Paper compliance vs. Real capacity
While fleet size in the EU has shrunk dramatically vessel numbers and engine power are down by over a quarter since 2004 actual fishing capacity tells a different story.
The problem, long flagged by industry insiders, lies in how effort is measured. The system still relies heavily on gross tonnage and declared engine power: two metrics that fail to capture modernisation, fuel efficiency, and gear improvements.
A 2019 Commission audit found widespread underreporting of engine power, with actual output exceeding registered figures by 20–40% in some cases. Since then, new guidelines for verification have been introduced. But enforcement remains inconsistent.
“It’s a bit of a phantom fleet issue,” said an EU official involved in capacity oversight. “On paper, we’re under target. On the water, the picture’s more aggressive.”
Economic pressure below the surface
The 2025 economic performance data tell a familiar story: resilience in some fleets, sharp strain in others.
- The large-scale fleet continues to dominate landings and value, but margins are tightening, especially as fuel prices remain volatile.
- The small-scale coastal fleet, which accounts for over 75% of EU vessels, is economically marginal in many regions. In the Baltic and southern Europe, losses are now structural.
- The distant-water fleet, long a geopolitical outlier, is again growing in both capacity and strategic importance — but remains vulnerable to changing access conditions and external criticism.
Overall, profit margins are narrowing. And while targeted subsidies have helped some fleets adapt to sustainability requirements, many operators now face rising capital costs, regulatory complexity, and a younger workforce that’s simply not showing up.
A policy that works until it doesn’t
Perhaps the clearest symptom of dysfunction is the EU’s landing obligation a rule meant to eliminate discards by requiring all catch to be landed and counted against quotas. Introduced fully in 2019, it was billed as a landmark step in responsible fisheries management.
In practice, enforcement has been weak. Member states continue to apply numerous exemptions, and the Commission now relies on voluntary reporting to track compliance.
“There’s broad agreement that the landing obligation hasn’t worked as intended,” said a policy advisor with one northern European delegation. “But no one wants to be the first to admit it publicly.”
A crossroads moment
In response, the Commission has launched a full-scale evaluation of the CFP. The review will examine whether core tools — such as total allowable catches (TACs), quotas, fleet ceilings, and funding eligibility remain fit for purpose. It will also assess whether a more regionally differentiated, climate-resilient policy framework is needed.
Among the key issues under discussion:
- Whether capacity metrics should reflect actual fishing effort, not just legacy tonnage and kilowatts
- How to align EMFAF funding with verified sustainability outcomes and stricter compliance
- Whether social indicators — like income stability and coastal employment — should play a formal role in policy design
Insiders suggest this isn’t a full rewrite of the CFP — yet. But it may set the stage for one within the next legislative cycle.
Read documents you can here:
Sustainable fishing in the EU state of play and orientations of 2026 (PDF)
Sustainable fishing in the EU state of play and orientations of 2026_WD (PDF)
Conclusion
Europe’s fisheries policy is now facing the same problem as many mature systems: its early victories have been banked, but new progress will be slower, more contested, and more expensive.
The 2025 review may not produce dramatic headlines. But its outcome will shape the financial, ecological, and political reality for one of Europe’s oldest industries. And for coastal communities already under strain, the stakes couldn’t be higher.
