Market Risk Scenario Dashboard — EBA 2025 Stress Test

Explore the ECB-prescribed market risk parameters for the 2025 EU-wide stress test adverse scenario. Equity shocks, interest rate curves, FX moves, credit spreads, commodity prices, and volatility surfaces — all in one interactive dashboard.

−66%Worst EU equity shock (Hungary)

+127 bpsEUR 3M swap rate shock

+65%Natural gas price surge

+233%VSTOXX 3M vol shock

Equity & Commodities

Interest Rates

Credit Spreads

Volatility

−66.3%Worst EU equity: Hungary

−60.7%US (S&P 500) shock

+65.3%Natural gas price surge

EU Countries

Global / Regional

All

Equity Index Shocks — Adverse Scenario

Relative change from starting point (%). Sorted from most to least severe.

Commodity Price Shocks

Deviation from starting point (%)

+127 bpsEUR 3M swap shock

+79 bpsEUR 10Y swap shock

InvertedAdverse yield curve slope

Interest Rate Swap Shocks by Currency

Absolute change in basis points across tenors (3M, 1Y, 5Y, 10Y)

Currency / Region	3M	1Y	5Y	10Y

+64.8%Largest: EUR/RUB

+36.5%EUR/TRY shock

0.0%EUR/USD, EUR/GBP unchanged

FX Shocks — Euro Against Other Currencies

Relative change (%). Positive = EUR appreciation. Major reserve pairs held constant.

Pair	Shock	Description

+179 bpsItaly / Spain / Greece 10Y sovereign

+276 bpsEU corp financial (high yield)

+151 bpsBulgaria / Hungary sovereign 10Y

Sovereign Spreads

Corporate Spreads

Sovereign Credit Spread Shocks — 10Y Tenor

Absolute change in basis points. Sorted by severity.

Country	3M	1Y	5Y	10Y

+233%VSTOXX 3M shock

+247%EM equity vol 3M

+158%EUR IR 1Mx1Y vol shock

Equity Volatility

Interest Rate Volatility

Equity Implied Volatility Shocks

Relative change (%) in implied volatility from starting point

For the macroeconomic scenario data — GDP, unemployment, inflation, and real estate — use our EBA 2025 Stress Test Scenario Explorer. To understand how these shocks translated into bank capital depletion, read our 2025 results analysis.

Source: ECB market risk scenario for the 2025 EU-wide banking sector stress test (updated 12 February 2025). All shocks are applied in the first year of the adverse scenario. Baseline assumes no change in stock prices and iTraxx follows risk premia at euro area level. This tool is provided for informational purposes only by Generation Impact Global. It does not constitute financial or regulatory advice.

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