EBA 2025 EU-Wide Stress Test — Scenario Explorer
Explore the baseline and adverse macroeconomic scenarios used in the 2025 EU-wide banking stress test. Select any country to visualise GDP, unemployment, inflation, and real estate price paths across the three-year horizon (2025–2027).
64Banks tested
−6.3%EU GDP (adverse, cumulative)
+6.1ppUnemployment increase
−50%EU stock price shock (2025)
Real GDP
Unemployment
Inflation (HICP)
Residential RE
Commercial RE
Real GDP Growth — European Union
Annual growth rates (%), baseline vs adverse scenario
Baseline
Adverse
Historical (2024)
Unemployment Rate — European Union
Rate (%), baseline vs adverse scenario
Baseline
Adverse
Historical (2024)
HICP Inflation — European Union
Annual inflation rate (%), baseline vs adverse scenario
Baseline
Adverse
Historical (2024)
Residential Real Estate Prices — European Union
Annual price change (%), baseline vs adverse scenario
Baseline
Adverse
Historical (2024)
Commercial Real Estate Prices — European Union
Annual price change (%), baseline vs adverse scenario
Baseline
Adverse
EU Country Comparison — Adverse Scenario Severity
GDP
Unemployment
RRE Prices
CRE Prices
| Country | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | Cumulative | Level dev. 2027 |
|---|
Source: ESRB/ECB macro-financial scenario for the 2025 EU-wide banking sector stress test (updated 26 February 2025). Baseline projections are based on EU national central banks’ December 2024 forecasts. The adverse scenario is hypothetical and should not be interpreted as a forecast. This tool is provided for informational purposes by Generation Impact Global.
